Saturday, January 23, 2010
The Big Picture, v. 3
In previous posts (here and here) I have offered ruminations on how the rich and powerful elites might run things. The following is a continuation in this series. --RPM
==========
The Big Picture, v. 3
By Robert P. Murphy
If I were rich and powerful, and had no conscience, this is how I might behave...
First, let's look at how my grandfather and his associates set things up, back around the year 1910. They had amassed huge fortunes in their respective industries, and they wanted to solidify their dominance. So they decided to spearhead the creation of a central bank and a federal income tax, as well as to push the U.S. into the global empire business. They also bought the intelligentsia who were developing the rationalizations for incredible new powers for the government that my grandfather and his associates owned.
In a particularly clever twist, my grandfather and his associates allowed the rise of "anti-trust" powers, ostensibly to attack them. But in fact they knew that they could easily circumvent the new regulations, while fooling the general public. The real purpose was to make it impossible for new upstarts to challenge their domination of their respective industries. To that end, the income tax and especially a very high estate tax were particularly useful in crippling competitors who were starting at a disadvantage. In order to shield their wealth and keep it in our families, my grandfather and his associates established dynastic trusts, which were immune to the confiscatory tax rates they had designed for everyone else. Because of a legal formality, these trusts could only shelter the family estates for roughly 100 years, at which point they would be subject to full taxation. But such technicalities never stopped my family before; the other grandchildren and I knew what to do in order to roll over the money.
Ah yes, it's always difficult to predict these things in advance. So much of our work involves setting up roadblocks to anyone who could challenge our power, but then pulling the constraints out of the way whenever we decide they are hindering us more than our weaker competitors. For example, it was a brilliant stroke to strictly limit the amount of money outsiders could spend on political campaigns; since we own the government and major media, this ensured our complete control of what the voters saw in the year before an election. However, in the event of a "game changing" outburst of unpredicted voter behavior, we simply change the rules of the game two days later. This freedom allows us much more flexibility to massage the voters back on message by the 2010 elections, at which point they will conveniently demand that the politicians (whom we have installed because they "oppose" the previous batch we installed) reinstate the limits on campaigning.
The concentration of wealth and fixing elections are fairly easy. The part of my job that requires real finesse is moving the world toward a single fiat currency, the supply of which my associates and I strictly regulate. Naturally we have had to inculcate the concept of an all wise central bank chairman, but the downside is that if we want him to "bungle" it could spook the markets and end up costing us billions of dollars needlessly. (In contrast, we can very easily "accidentally" allow a would-be terrorist to launch an attack from a country we wish to invade, without fear that the American public will lose faith in their government's competence to protect them. It's a very nuanced job I have, indeed.)
But I digress. As I say, getting the American public to support our seizing control of yet another Middle Eastern country--and one with extensive water access--is easy; we've got that down to a science. But what's much riskier is fiddling with the central bank, as the financial traders can be moody.
The problem is how to get the Fed chairman to wreck the dollar, so that Americans will go for a common currency with a much larger region, and yet at the same time not spook the markets into thinking that the Fed chairman is incompetent. The solution is obvious, once we spell out the problem: We have one chairman pump up excess bank reserves to ridiculous heights, but keep them bottled up to prevent price inflation. Then we have every important academic and Nobel laureate (all funded and handpicked by us, of course) praise the chairman's brilliance.
Then, when the time comes for the massive inflation to hit, we tell our guy to start opening the spigots. At the same time, we all of a sudden have an "unthinkable" reversal in the fortunes of the Fed chair at the time of his renomination. We thus get a new guy in charge who can truthfully blame the resulting inflation on the mistakes of the last guy, and yet there is a very short window in which we have a lameduck Fed chair. It's basically the same trick we pulled with the previous guy--who was a maestro while in power and then was the fall guy for the housing bubble once he was out.
At some point I wonder why no one has caught on to this stuff, but I guess it's because no one really thinks people like me exist.
Robert P. Murphy holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University. He is the author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal (Regnery, 2009), and is the editor of the blog Free Advice.
The Big Picture, v. 3
By Robert P. Murphy
If I were rich and powerful, and had no conscience, this is how I might behave...
First, let's look at how my grandfather and his associates set things up, back around the year 1910. They had amassed huge fortunes in their respective industries, and they wanted to solidify their dominance. So they decided to spearhead the creation of a central bank and a federal income tax, as well as to push the U.S. into the global empire business. They also bought the intelligentsia who were developing the rationalizations for incredible new powers for the government that my grandfather and his associates owned.
In a particularly clever twist, my grandfather and his associates allowed the rise of "anti-trust" powers, ostensibly to attack them. But in fact they knew that they could easily circumvent the new regulations, while fooling the general public. The real purpose was to make it impossible for new upstarts to challenge their domination of their respective industries. To that end, the income tax and especially a very high estate tax were particularly useful in crippling competitors who were starting at a disadvantage. In order to shield their wealth and keep it in our families, my grandfather and his associates established dynastic trusts, which were immune to the confiscatory tax rates they had designed for everyone else. Because of a legal formality, these trusts could only shelter the family estates for roughly 100 years, at which point they would be subject to full taxation. But such technicalities never stopped my family before; the other grandchildren and I knew what to do in order to roll over the money.
Ah yes, it's always difficult to predict these things in advance. So much of our work involves setting up roadblocks to anyone who could challenge our power, but then pulling the constraints out of the way whenever we decide they are hindering us more than our weaker competitors. For example, it was a brilliant stroke to strictly limit the amount of money outsiders could spend on political campaigns; since we own the government and major media, this ensured our complete control of what the voters saw in the year before an election. However, in the event of a "game changing" outburst of unpredicted voter behavior, we simply change the rules of the game two days later. This freedom allows us much more flexibility to massage the voters back on message by the 2010 elections, at which point they will conveniently demand that the politicians (whom we have installed because they "oppose" the previous batch we installed) reinstate the limits on campaigning.
The concentration of wealth and fixing elections are fairly easy. The part of my job that requires real finesse is moving the world toward a single fiat currency, the supply of which my associates and I strictly regulate. Naturally we have had to inculcate the concept of an all wise central bank chairman, but the downside is that if we want him to "bungle" it could spook the markets and end up costing us billions of dollars needlessly. (In contrast, we can very easily "accidentally" allow a would-be terrorist to launch an attack from a country we wish to invade, without fear that the American public will lose faith in their government's competence to protect them. It's a very nuanced job I have, indeed.)
But I digress. As I say, getting the American public to support our seizing control of yet another Middle Eastern country--and one with extensive water access--is easy; we've got that down to a science. But what's much riskier is fiddling with the central bank, as the financial traders can be moody.
The problem is how to get the Fed chairman to wreck the dollar, so that Americans will go for a common currency with a much larger region, and yet at the same time not spook the markets into thinking that the Fed chairman is incompetent. The solution is obvious, once we spell out the problem: We have one chairman pump up excess bank reserves to ridiculous heights, but keep them bottled up to prevent price inflation. Then we have every important academic and Nobel laureate (all funded and handpicked by us, of course) praise the chairman's brilliance.
Then, when the time comes for the massive inflation to hit, we tell our guy to start opening the spigots. At the same time, we all of a sudden have an "unthinkable" reversal in the fortunes of the Fed chair at the time of his renomination. We thus get a new guy in charge who can truthfully blame the resulting inflation on the mistakes of the last guy, and yet there is a very short window in which we have a lameduck Fed chair. It's basically the same trick we pulled with the previous guy--who was a maestro while in power and then was the fall guy for the housing bubble once he was out.
At some point I wonder why no one has caught on to this stuff, but I guess it's because no one really thinks people like me exist.
Robert P. Murphy holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University. He is the author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal (Regnery, 2009), and is the editor of the blog Free Advice.
Comments:
At the same time, we all of a sudden have an "unthinkable" reversal in the fortunes of the Fed chair at the time of his renomination. We thus get a new guy in charge who can truthfully blame the resulting inflation on the mistakes of the last guy,
LOL!!!
I was thinking just this yesterday while reading about Bernanke's troubled Senate confirmation. A scapegoat is most useful when he isn't part of your government any longer.
LOL!!!
I was thinking just this yesterday while reading about Bernanke's troubled Senate confirmation. A scapegoat is most useful when he isn't part of your government any longer.
Also, for a fine example of central banker double speak, did you see this quote from Mervyn King?
“Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said ‘undesirably low’ money supply growth will curb inflation and return it to the 2% goal, suggesting he’s not yet ready to unwind emergency stimulus. ‘Provided monetary growth remains well under control --and remember at present it is undesirably low -- inflation should return to target in the medium term,’ King said… The recent pickup in inflation ‘should be temporary,’ he said.”
[From Bloomberg via Doug Noland.]
“Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said ‘undesirably low’ money supply growth will curb inflation and return it to the 2% goal, suggesting he’s not yet ready to unwind emergency stimulus. ‘Provided monetary growth remains well under control --and remember at present it is undesirably low -- inflation should return to target in the medium term,’ King said… The recent pickup in inflation ‘should be temporary,’ he said.”
[From Bloomberg via Doug Noland.]
So, MIses was wrong about a planned economy, after all? In fact, it's possible to have a planned world!
I wonder how devoted the oligarchs are to their plans together or are there are power struggles within for supremacy? Certainly absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Did Mises say that no amount of planning was possible?
Isn't there a big difference between between the powerful planning for their own benefit and economy-wide allocation of resources? Did Mises claim that even the power elite in a communist country wouldn't be able to plan sufficiently to extract personal wealth/benefits?
Billy
Isn't there a big difference between between the powerful planning for their own benefit and economy-wide allocation of resources? Did Mises claim that even the power elite in a communist country wouldn't be able to plan sufficiently to extract personal wealth/benefits?
Billy
Now, now, all you "conspiracies never happen" commentators. Don't get your panties in a bunch.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/spl2/33-conspiracy-theories.html
NSA, otherwise known as, No Such Agency.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/spl2/33-conspiracy-theories.html
NSA, otherwise known as, No Such Agency.
Last anonymous:
1) OK, this is the Web -- you can link to other articles, instead of making us paste the bits of the URL back together.
2) I don't think that anyone intelligent doubts there are conspiracies. What most people find kind of doubtful is that there is one giant conspiracy running the entire planet, especially when there is a much simpler explanation for everything Bob described.
1) OK, this is the Web -- you can link to other articles, instead of making us paste the bits of the URL back together.
2) I don't think that anyone intelligent doubts there are conspiracies. What most people find kind of doubtful is that there is one giant conspiracy running the entire planet, especially when there is a much simpler explanation for everything Bob described.
"Did Mises claim that even the power elite in a communist country wouldn't be able to plan sufficiently to extract personal wealth/benefits?"
Um, well, they couldn't plan well enough even to keep themselves in power, now, could they? But perhaps that is because there was another secret group that was successfully planning the whole of history, and wanted them to fail?
Um, well, they couldn't plan well enough even to keep themselves in power, now, could they? But perhaps that is because there was another secret group that was successfully planning the whole of history, and wanted them to fail?
As Vob Higgs once said to me, "There are lots and lots of conspiracies! Just go into an Avenue K restaurant at breakfast any morning and there is a conspiracy being planned at every table. And that's how we know there isn't one giant conspiracy -- because there are thousands or millions of little, but competing conspiracies.
From the conspiracy theory list:
"The Rothschild dynasty owns roughly half of the world’s wealth
Horseshit.
" and evidence suggests it has funded both sides of major wars, including the United States Civil War."
Oooh! Does he mean to tell us that bankers will lend money to both sides, without worrying about who is right?! I'm stunned!
"The Rothschild dynasty owns roughly half of the world’s wealth
Horseshit.
" and evidence suggests it has funded both sides of major wars, including the United States Civil War."
Oooh! Does he mean to tell us that bankers will lend money to both sides, without worrying about who is right?! I'm stunned!
You know, Gene, the web is a good analogy.
I think we all agree there is no single master plan here. It's more of a confluence of interests, and a lot of opportunism. Do you really think that all of these conspiracies took place in splendid isolation?
Many of them were connected, rather like the web.
I think we all agree there is no single master plan here. It's more of a confluence of interests, and a lot of opportunism. Do you really think that all of these conspiracies took place in splendid isolation?
Many of them were connected, rather like the web.
Gene Callahan,
"Um, well, they couldn't plan well enough even to keep themselves in power, now, could they? But perhaps that is because there was another secret group that was successfully planning the whole of history, and wanted them to fail?"
They did it fairly well for many years. Those individuals who benefitted during those years were surely successful. Also, if we were looking at it in the 60's they would appear to be doing a good job.
And is Murphy even speculating that there is one single, giant, all-encompassing conspiracy that will never fail? From this post it seems to be a fairly recent, fairly focussed (one country, one group of power elite) conspiracy - and who knows how long it can be kept up.
It's speculation, but it doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility to plan such a thing. Of course that doesn't mean it's true or that I believe it...
Billy
"Um, well, they couldn't plan well enough even to keep themselves in power, now, could they? But perhaps that is because there was another secret group that was successfully planning the whole of history, and wanted them to fail?"
They did it fairly well for many years. Those individuals who benefitted during those years were surely successful. Also, if we were looking at it in the 60's they would appear to be doing a good job.
And is Murphy even speculating that there is one single, giant, all-encompassing conspiracy that will never fail? From this post it seems to be a fairly recent, fairly focussed (one country, one group of power elite) conspiracy - and who knows how long it can be kept up.
It's speculation, but it doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility to plan such a thing. Of course that doesn't mean it's true or that I believe it...
Billy
But my point is this: Sure, people plan and even conspire all the time. Some of those conspiracies come off. (Think of the one called "The American Revolution"!) But they are all very limited in their ability to:
1) Keep themselves secret. (Notice that most of the conspiracies listed in "last anonymous"'s post failed in that they were discovered! And many of them just failed period.)
2) Control world events. However much the Soviets could extract from the Russian people, world history certainly did not turn out according to their plans -- the worldwide socialist revolution has fallen a little short of being realized, hasn't it?)
History is the result of "human action but not of human design" -- understanding this was probably the greatest advance ever made in the social sciences, and Bob really should be aware of it.
1) Keep themselves secret. (Notice that most of the conspiracies listed in "last anonymous"'s post failed in that they were discovered! And many of them just failed period.)
2) Control world events. However much the Soviets could extract from the Russian people, world history certainly did not turn out according to their plans -- the worldwide socialist revolution has fallen a little short of being realized, hasn't it?)
History is the result of "human action but not of human design" -- understanding this was probably the greatest advance ever made in the social sciences, and Bob really should be aware of it.
And none of what I'm saying should be seen as a negation of the idea that the Rockefellers, the Morgans, the Harrimans, etc. etc., have certain interests in common, meet at parties together, discuss their goals for the world, and even agree to act in concert at times. But other times they are rivals, they hate each other, they are stymied by events beyond their control, and so on. You can't do history by spinning out a fantasy and claiming "It's just as IF these people planned this, so they must have!" No, you have to go and to the real, hard historical research to show that X was planned, but to discover that Y wasn't.
History is the result of "human action but not of human design" -- understanding this was probably the greatest advance ever made in the social sciences, and Bob really should be aware of it.
I could tolerate your glib non sequiturs up till this point, Gene. Adam Ferguson certainly didn't prove that rich people couldn't tell Supreme Court justices how to vote. Mises certainly didn't rule out the existence of fascism.
If you want to say I'm wrong or I'm spouting off things I could never prove, fine fair enough. But please stop lecturing me on Austrian economics.
I could tolerate your glib non sequiturs up till this point, Gene. Adam Ferguson certainly didn't prove that rich people couldn't tell Supreme Court justices how to vote. Mises certainly didn't rule out the existence of fascism.
If you want to say I'm wrong or I'm spouting off things I could never prove, fine fair enough. But please stop lecturing me on Austrian economics.
Bob, my sequiturs have neither been glib nor non, just contra. And I will feel free to lecture you on whatever elementary facts of the social sciences you seem to be forgetting, thank you.
Oh why not? Better to post too much than too little, I always say...
Gene, how about this? "Mises said that human beings act to remove felt uneasiness. The people who own media conglomerates are uneasy about getting killed by CIA special ops teams, and they respond to incentives by getting favorable regulatory and tax treatment when they play ball. Hence, Gene must not have read Human Action. I can't believe it! He forget the basis of praxeology and even mainstream micro. Must be all that Oakeshott."
It's funny that you accuse me of saying the elites orchestrate everything, when I specifically discussed something that took them by surprise (the election in Mass.). Now a completely fair thing would be to say, "Give me a break Bob, you can 'explain' anything that way."
But to say, "Bob thinks 5 people have controlled all of human history, and I know that's false, because some guys in Perkins engage in conspiracies, and that's why the single-year expiration of the Estate Tax must be due to gridlock..." well, yes, that is a non sequitur anchored in a false premise.
Gene, how about this? "Mises said that human beings act to remove felt uneasiness. The people who own media conglomerates are uneasy about getting killed by CIA special ops teams, and they respond to incentives by getting favorable regulatory and tax treatment when they play ball. Hence, Gene must not have read Human Action. I can't believe it! He forget the basis of praxeology and even mainstream micro. Must be all that Oakeshott."
It's funny that you accuse me of saying the elites orchestrate everything, when I specifically discussed something that took them by surprise (the election in Mass.). Now a completely fair thing would be to say, "Give me a break Bob, you can 'explain' anything that way."
But to say, "Bob thinks 5 people have controlled all of human history, and I know that's false, because some guys in Perkins engage in conspiracies, and that's why the single-year expiration of the Estate Tax must be due to gridlock..." well, yes, that is a non sequitur anchored in a false premise.
Well, Bob, I admit your scenario does not foreclose the possibility that the elite suffer setbacks. But to say "Minnesota controlled the game against Dallas" does not mean that Dallas did not sometimes do things, like advance the ball, or stop Minnesota, that Minnesota didn't want them to do. Of course, some plays did not go Minnesota's way. But Minnesota did control the game.
And you (seem) to be saying "These elite control world history." And when I point that out, to respond with, "Hey, I even noted that the non-elite got a first down" (election in Mass.) does not really change my understanding of what you were saying.
And you (seem) to be saying "These elite control world history." And when I point that out, to respond with, "Hey, I even noted that the non-elite got a first down" (election in Mass.) does not really change my understanding of what you were saying.
Gene Callahan,
Like I already pointed out, Murphy's speculated scenario does not posit a single, cohesive elite who control all the world's history (but rather a fairly recent, single-country conspiracy).
One of us misread. I think that it's you but I could be wrong.
Billy
Like I already pointed out, Murphy's speculated scenario does not posit a single, cohesive elite who control all the world's history (but rather a fairly recent, single-country conspiracy).
One of us misread. I think that it's you but I could be wrong.
Billy
Gene,
It seemed to be doublespeak to me in that King is trying to soothe fears about the recent spate of inflation in Great Britain by pointing out that he expects it to moderate going forward due to the low growth in the money supply, a rate of growth he then calls "undesirably low". So, what is his goal in regards to his targeted inflation rate?
It seemed to be doublespeak to me in that King is trying to soothe fears about the recent spate of inflation in Great Britain by pointing out that he expects it to moderate going forward due to the low growth in the money supply, a rate of growth he then calls "undesirably low". So, what is his goal in regards to his targeted inflation rate?
"Like I already pointed out, Murphy's speculated scenario does not posit a single, cohesive elite who control all the world's history (but rather a fairly recent, single-country conspiracy).
"
It's still batshit insane. And it wasn't limited to a single country either.
Yes, people make plans and try to bring events under their control to acheive these plans.
And yes sometimes people will use political means to acheive their goals.
...and yet we're still nowhere close to a few people secretly dictating the course of US history.
...unless you want to invoke lizardmen and black helicoptors.
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"
It's still batshit insane. And it wasn't limited to a single country either.
Yes, people make plans and try to bring events under their control to acheive these plans.
And yes sometimes people will use political means to acheive their goals.
...and yet we're still nowhere close to a few people secretly dictating the course of US history.
...unless you want to invoke lizardmen and black helicoptors.
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