Monday, June 22, 2009
My Most Extreme Gold Call: Hey, this crow's not bad. Tastes like chicken.
I'm still in Florida recovering from my numerous trips. Tuesday morning I head back home (a 10-hour road trip). But an anonymous poster in a recent blog reminded me of this rash statement I made on January 23, 2009:
I don't know why gold isn't a lot higher, frankly. Part of it is the general drop in prices, I think, but that has surprised me. If gold doesn't break $1,000 by summer then I don't know what I'm talking about (at least in this arena).Well, it's officially summer, and gold hasn't broken $1,000. I will do a postgame analysis once I'm settled back home, but for now let me just acknowledge that I didn't know what I was talking about when I fired my mouth off in January.
You committed the sin of quantitative prediction. You should repent by saying something nice about Krugman. Yes, a severe punishment indeed, but maybe that will stop you from doing it again.
You are in good company. Austrian economists and pseudo Austrians have a long history of calling for the inflation wolf and the subsequent rise in the price of gold.
Give yourself a little room for error on timing. Given that TPTB are using all the power they have to keep gold from going above $1,000, it is not possible to pick a day (the first day of summer) that says you are wrong. I wager if we say before the end of summer or during the summer, you will turn out to be correct.Post a Comment
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