Wednesday, February 11, 2009

 

Total Borrowing From Fed Collapses?

I don't know if this is just some kind of blip, but I was checking the latest numbers and saw this:



I'm not sure what it means. How's that for Free Advice?

Anyone? Bueller?



Comments:
Could it have something to do with the stimulus package?
 
Notice the timing. The peak was right after the Fed tripled the TAF, which is excluded from the TOTBORR data. This explains why TOTBORR is crashing even though reserves and base are through the roof.
 
Jim,

Reserves and base are both down as well (if you look at the more frequent data, not the monthly series). They didn't drop as much as Total Borrowing, so what you're talking about is probably part of what's going on, but it does look like Bernanke is backing away from the edge a little.
 
Bob,

Yes, I see the weekly and biweekly reserves and base are down too recently. Looks like there's been a steady contraction of the Fed balance sheet since the beginning of 2009 as well. M1 & M2 also. Hmm.

Is he really pulling back, or getting himself some breathing room to start monetizing the stimulus? Bloomberg today reports the Fed is in talks to sign up new primary dealers to handle the expected surge of Treasury auction volume.
 
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