Friday, January 16, 2009

 

Romanian Interview on Financial Crisis

Available here, though I think they misquoted me.



Comments:
got a translation?
 
"dovedit eficace, ba chiar au înrăutăţit situaţia. În esenţă, lucrurile s-au petrecut în felul următor pe timpul bulei imobiliare"

I would never have put it that way.
 
You would be amazed how much effort and sweat this took, but here is a rough translation:

nterviu by Robert P. Murphy, senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute
Robert P. Murphy is senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute --
research organization in the field of public policies established in
California, USA - and former financial analyst in the Laffer Associates.
Is author of the book "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism"
(Regnery, 2007) and several studies devoted to energy policy and
environment. In an interview granted SFin, Murphy says that the current crisis
economic was caused by loosening monetary policy in Fed
combined with the loan securitization and carried by
corporations in the U.S. federal mortgage. In his opinion,
the incentive money or tax savings not developed
produce results and would be an error as NBR and the Government of Romania to go on
this way to combatele the crisis in our country.
Increasing the budget deficit and public debt are not only
reduce the resources available in the private sector and thereby inhibit
rapid recovery.


Last year, sub crisis in the United States gave birth to a crisis
Global Financial, which now began to put fingerprints on
real economy. Most developed economies are officially in recession
currently, and the rest of his revised down rates
economic growth. What has caused, in your opinion, this chain of events?
There were several reasons that led to this situation, but in view
me, a role was played by Fed policy to keep rates
interest at a low level of government efforts to promote
purchase of housing and the popularity of the model analysis
have underestimated the financial risk associated complicatelor assets
derivatives created based on real estate. After crisis
IT sector and the terrorist attacks of September 11, Alan Greenspan has
low interest rate monetary policy at 1% and left it at that
level for one year from June 2003 to June 2004. This period
largely coincides with the period in which interest rates
mortgage loans declined and housing prices have exploded. In
Meanwhile, there have been supported by state corporations, Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, which were serious excuse for an accounting fraud
strengthening friendly hand. Investors knew that the federal government
U.S. will support Fannie and Freddie & why these intermediaries s
enjoyed a market share as high as in the mortgage. But
part of the blame falls on and rating agencies have given notes
very good financial instruments created on the basis of credit
mortgage. Investors believed it would win an exposure
the top of the housing market with a very low risk because
they thought it divided among thousands of small contracts for mortgage
throughout the country. But when all these markets are down simultaneously,
"Diversification" which has impressed so much rating agencies did not
grand big deal.

Fed, ECB and other major central banks tried to stabilize the situation
through monetary incentives. In turn, governments in the world
worked at the tax through a combination of public spending and
tax rebates in order to restore the economy on a trajectory
growth. They proved they effective?
No, these measures have proved effective even have worsened
situation. Basically, things have occurred during the following
bulei property: lowering interest rates artificially induced in error
investors, and they pumped too many resources in the
real estate and financial. Therefore, the path to recovery would
implies a decline in these sectors. But governments around the world
do you like best bubbles are not dezumfle. These measures
will culminate with a failure and will waste taxpayers' money.

Although the existence of a financial sector of the less developed immune Europe
Central and Eastern Europe the direct effects of financial crisis, recession
U.S., UK and euro zone now has an impact
negatively on countries in the region, including Romania. The exchange rate
of local currencies depreciated significantly against the euro and
dollar, foreign investment and exports decline, and credit risk
increase. What should governments in the region in these conditions?
In Ironically, although financial bubble was supported by the Fed and
massive loans of U.S. Treasury, investors around the world
they put their capital at home by purchasing assets denominated in U.S. dollars
Americans - especially U.S. government bonds - the
it considers a "refuge", now, when its bubble broke. A small country
can not really do much in such a situation, because policies
his will have a significant impact on the global economy. With
However, governments in these countries can at least refrain
to do more harm its own people. They should resist
impulse to depreciate their currencies or to increase îndatorarea
Public programs "incentive", which sees that it does not work in
larger countries. In fact, the best thing is that these governments
I can do is to reduce their own budgets as much as possible,
provide fiscal support for its own citizens and companies.

The budget deficit in Romania has reached 5% of GDP in 2008, well above
limit of 3% recorded in the Stability Pact. Government has certain
difficulties in running its debt in the short term and the cost
loans rose after S & P and Fitch ratings were lowered country.
Is it a wise measure to increase public spending in
this situation?
Certainly not. Increased public spending increased debt
published exactly at a time in which each tries to grow and
savings. Therefore, this measure will not only
prolong the crisis. At the same time, all the resources spent by government
for "incentive" means simply diverted resources from
use in the private sector. Real estate bubble has already directed resources
unsustainable projects, many of which have now abandoned. It
be so outrageous as to rob the government and more private sector
resources in this moment of weakness. There is no use to
"Creating jobs" that exist only as subsidies
government. This does not create prosperity, not in the least or
economic recovery.

Recent years were a period of significant growth
Loan to Romania, the biggest part of being targeted by
consumer and real estate. Temându the growth of inflation, National Bank
Romania has begun to increase the reference interest rate at the beginning
last year, and then to control the advance loans
currency, introduced new rules prudent to rationalize
credit. Currently, several analysts and businessmen
call for lower interest NBR monetary policy to stimulate
economic growth, the more the price reduction
raw materials has reduced the risk of inflation (although the rate of inflation
NBR target located over the past year). Do you agree with this
position?
I think it is impossible for any economist to know the answer to this
type of question. It's like asking how it "should" be price
bikes. The answer is, of course, that nobody knows: let the price
result from the interaction of producers and consumers. In
Likewise, if the money and banking system would be left in the care sector
private, then you might question how big or how small
should be interest. As a result, the very existence of banks
Central - a monopoly on coin batteries - creates problems
which no adequate response. After I said these things, I think
Yet that currently there is a danger that central banks
rătăcească towards monetary growth and production of
inflation higher. But long-term increase the amount of money not
make a country richer. If there must be a central bank, it
should notify the rigid rules that will govern behavior and
then observe. The very idea of discretionary monetary policy
introduce an element of uncertainty in the economic environment that has
contribution to the increasing unrest and fueling investor
"Liquidity trap" that so much worried analysts.

The current crisis is usually seen as a failure of capitalism and / or
a failure of economic theory. How to comment on these allegations?
The mainstream that dominates today's world of economic advance
any time the storm will come, and even continued to deny them
existence long after. In my view, things will continue to
worse, yet we will see commentators saying that it was
the worst has passed. However, some economists have been having
predicted these events, and they were members of the Austrian School
of Economics. One of the most well-known analysts who predicted
these terrible times was Peter Schiff. He argues that
capitalism has led to the current crisis, but on the contrary, intervention
Government monetary sphere and in the financial and banking has been
Because of this crisis. Low interest rates have fueled
increase housing prices and the promise of salvation
bankruptcy prolonged recession, as large financial institutions
expected to be supported by the government instead to take losses and to
and liquidate activities.

Are you a supporter of economic freedom. What is and what
Serve this?
Economic freedom means that people are their own masters and
Their property owners, which means that they have the right to
occupation and choose to trade with other people, changing goods
they have the prices at which agree. In place of faith
ability "expert" government to plan the economy,
freedom equals that individuals make their own plans
in a relationship based on voluntary. A free society is
uses the knowledge and expertise of millions of people instead of
leave to the discretion of each individual leadership.

The conclusion is valid for your country and culture?
Yes, the general principles that we discussed are available anytime
there are rare and people must make choices which involve costs
and benefits. This characterizes all human action
cultures. Specific details may vary from one country to another,
but the free market economy and the dangers of monopoly
government are the same.
 
Heh that's funny. The translation took "scarcity" and turned it into "rare."
 
Zach,

It's really not worth me digging it up and pasting in here. It's all basic stuff like what caused the housing boom, should governments spend money to stimulate, etc. It's great that this story is getting out to their readers but I've covered all the territory with other stuff I've posted here.
 
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