Wednesday, January 28, 2009

 

Murphy Debut "Daily Reckoning" Article

Today my debut article at the Daily Reckoning ran. (They saw my sarcastic doom and gloom at mises.org and thought, "This is our kind of guy!") The plan right now is that I will contribute columns every month or so. (BTW there are some missing hyperlinks because they just switched to a new format and there were some posting snafus.) In today's article I make a lot of the same arguments about Bernanke having no options, but I spell some of the issues out more carefully, especially "open market operations." The conclusion:

The Federal Reserve under Ben Bernanke’s leadership has painted itself into a very tight corner. He has cleverly managed to stave off utter disaster so far, but he is running out of options. Ironically, the effects of his incredible injections of new reserves have been masked simply because the financial sector is still paralyzed. If and when the economy begins to improve, Bernanke will have to decide whether to allow double-digit price inflation or instead contain prices by strangling the incipient recovery.



Comments:
Great article, Bob. It nicely explains that Bernanke has setup an inflationary mess, if he allows the money supply to remain at its current levels. The article also discusses the upward pressure placed on interest rates from an attempt to decrease the money supply, if he tries to fight off the inflation. Would the upward pressure cause interest rates to rise so high that current US gov interest debt payments would be unmanageable?

If that is the case, how could the US gov possibly resolve the situation? It seems to me that the only possible way would be to dramatically increase government revenue and cut government spending. As far as revenue, though, a tax rate increase wouldn't really have the effect of increasing revenue. It would only harm productivity (during an already recessionary period) and have a negative effect on future government revenue. So the government spending cut would have to be drastic. However, cutting government spending is nearly an impossible feet as it is and Obama's administration seems perfectly content to run deficits.

It seems to me that the only resolution would be either gov default or inflation. Both of which would obviously greatly reduce the value of the dollar.

Is the above anaylsis correct? Is there any way that the dollar does not fall dramatically? If the dollar fall is inevitable, is there any way for us to gauge the likely drop in value (i.e. is there a way to measure the inflationary and loss ot investor confidence effects of monetizing the US national debt? What historic data do we have for currency value after government default? Would default be the kiss of death for the dollar?)

Thanks again for the article.
 
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