Friday, January 23, 2009

 

More Subtleties in the Claim that "Free Markets" Caused the Crisis

Per Bylund passed along this video interview with Krugman. He blamed the present mess on 30 years of rigid free market ideology, and then clarified that the regulatory apparatus failed to keep up with the changing financial system. In case you're curious, the reason he has to say it that way is that there was no smoking gun of "deregulation" that the critics can point to. The only possible candidate is the 1999 relaxation of Glass-Steagal. Obviously I can't prove that this is untrue, but if you study what that change did, I find it highly implausible that it sparked a housing boom that didn't really kick into full gear until a few years later, and also coaxed banks to make trillions in bad loans.

The other gem of the interview is Krugman saying this is the worst financial shock since 1931/1932, but that (paraphrasing) "hopefully our policy responses will be different this time, so we won't get another Great Depression."

I agree, Professor Krugman. In 1931 and 1932,* the policy response was to run an unprecedented peacetime budget deficit, to urge businesses not to lay off workers or cut wages, to engage in massive public works spending, and to bring the discount rate really low to help the financial sector.

Good thing we're not making the mistakes of the past.


* I would have to double check the timelines, but my description might more accurately apply to 1930/1931. By 1932 the government and Fed started to realize that their Krugmanian medicine (not their term) wasn't working and they started changing course, like jacking up taxes (to try to close the deficit) and raising the discount rate (to stem the outflow of gold). But clearly they tried Krugman's policies for two full years after the stock market Crash and got the worst depression in history.



Comments:
One of the liberal talking points in the current economic crisis is that 'regulators failed to keep up with financial market innovation'. The idea is that the financial market implemented all sorts of new non-bank financial instruments and we were stuck with a regulatory regime more suited to the 1930s that the 2000s.

It would seem to me that we can ju jitsu this argument in the debate. Isn't the stimulus package similarly anachronistic? After all back in the 1930s when the economy was more labor intensive stimulating was really a matter of "creating jobs". Moving the unemployed (who had pre-depression been employed in labor intensive agriculture or manufacturing) from one labor intensive sector to another (i.e. the WPA) was relatively simple.

But not today. Employment today is in a more capital intensive economy. Probably 3 or 4 times as capital intensive as the 1930s economy. Capital takes time to accumilate and deploy. So "employment stimulus" programs today will not work as well as they did in the 1930s. The labor market today is thus more specialised and in a sense less mobile. A stimulus package today is thus more likely to "hyper-stimulate" a targeted sector, without creating many new jobs, and leave the failing sectors, and their associated unemployed, unstimulated.

I was wondering what the forum think of this argument?
 
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