Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Another Push for "Master Resource"
I mentioned this new website when it first launched, but for those interested in energy issues, "Master Resource" is definitely worth checking out. Now that people are back from vacations etc., there are a bunch of new posts going up. In particular, check out Chip Knappenberger, who is a co-author with Pat Michaels. I loved this post, where Chip takes on the warnings of global warming leading to huge agricultural losses. Chip posts the following two charts, which paint a more reassuring picture:
Comments:
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Correlation is not causation. Track that chart of yields with the sales of industrial fertilizers instead.
# posted by 
: January 20, 2009 at 11:59 AM
: January 20, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Heyercapital,
Of course correlation is not causation. Chip's point is that human ingenuity was able to overcome whatever handicaps a slowly rising temperature may have posed to yields thus far, and so actual history poses a hurdle for those claiming we are doomed. Presumably industrial fertilizers will still be available in 2090, as well as other coping techniques.
Of course correlation is not causation. Chip's point is that human ingenuity was able to overcome whatever handicaps a slowly rising temperature may have posed to yields thus far, and so actual history poses a hurdle for those claiming we are doomed. Presumably industrial fertilizers will still be available in 2090, as well as other coping techniques.
The charts are simply a refutation of the claim that rising temperatures will lead to a global food shortage.
Bob, I would say that both you and Chip (in Chip's case deliberately) have misstated what the Science article is all about, which is precisely about the perveived need to ADAPT to the relatively higher stresses that climate exchange is expected to put on agriculture in the TROPICS.
Chip casts the article as designed to call for cap and trade legislation in the US (climate litigation), but this is clearly bogus, as the article instead clearly notes that mitigation will be too little, too late, and calls for attention to and investment in ADAPTATION in the TROPICS.
NO ONE - and certainly not the Science article - is talking about the people in middle and higher latitudes starving from climate change; rather, agriculture here has generally been expected to see net gains - despite significant disruption and related adaptation resulting from changing temperature and rainfall patterns.
In temperate zones such adaptation is already underway (and can largely be left to the market), but such adaptations simply are not applicable in different climes, including the tropics and subtropics, which in addition are much poorer (and more poorly governed).
Whether (and how) the West should help poorer countries to adapt to climate change or simply leave poorer peoples in poorly governed nations to their own devices is the real question posed by the Science article; while scientists are unable to answer what are essentially political and moral questions, they do not do us a disservice by raising them.
Chip should look in the mirror when he levies charges of meretricious sicence nonsense, but even those who love what he serves up would do well to recognize that Chip does not contest the prognostication of further warming and need for adaptation. It is telling that Chip refuses to like to the Science article or to press releases or news articles discussing it; some of those are here:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5911/240
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/battisti_naylor_2009.pdf
http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=46272
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7817684.stm
They should also note that Indur Goklany, the conservative analyst whom Chip refers to at his even less balanced piece at the "World Climate Report" blog, explicitly calls for the Western nations to invest billions in helping the developing nations to adapt to climate change.
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Chip casts the article as designed to call for cap and trade legislation in the US (climate litigation), but this is clearly bogus, as the article instead clearly notes that mitigation will be too little, too late, and calls for attention to and investment in ADAPTATION in the TROPICS.
NO ONE - and certainly not the Science article - is talking about the people in middle and higher latitudes starving from climate change; rather, agriculture here has generally been expected to see net gains - despite significant disruption and related adaptation resulting from changing temperature and rainfall patterns.
In temperate zones such adaptation is already underway (and can largely be left to the market), but such adaptations simply are not applicable in different climes, including the tropics and subtropics, which in addition are much poorer (and more poorly governed).
Whether (and how) the West should help poorer countries to adapt to climate change or simply leave poorer peoples in poorly governed nations to their own devices is the real question posed by the Science article; while scientists are unable to answer what are essentially political and moral questions, they do not do us a disservice by raising them.
Chip should look in the mirror when he levies charges of meretricious sicence nonsense, but even those who love what he serves up would do well to recognize that Chip does not contest the prognostication of further warming and need for adaptation. It is telling that Chip refuses to like to the Science article or to press releases or news articles discussing it; some of those are here:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/323/5911/240
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~david/battisti_naylor_2009.pdf
http://uwnews.org/article.asp?articleID=46272
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7817684.stm
They should also note that Indur Goklany, the conservative analyst whom Chip refers to at his even less balanced piece at the "World Climate Report" blog, explicitly calls for the Western nations to invest billions in helping the developing nations to adapt to climate change.
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