Thursday, November 13, 2008
Peter Schiff's Critics: Who's Laughing Now?
I felt terrible for my smug treatment of Peter Schiff in a few articles in 2006 and early 2007--though in my defense, strictly speaking the arguments in his articles that I read were invalid, and so 99% of my critiques were "good." But since he was warning everyone the US economy was on the edge of a cliff, and most others (including me) were saying, "Watchou talkin bout, Peter?" I think he should feel vindicated.
But OK, I was a little unfair to him, and since then I have made up for it (I hope) through a few official recognitions of my mistake; here is the mea culpa (with links to some of my harshest Schiff critiques if you feel like taking a trip down memory lane). But MAN check out the video below, which an anonymous commenter put in an earlier post at this blog. You've probably seen the first one several times by now, but make sure you watch the second exchange. These two guys literally laugh out loud at Schiff, when--with the benefit of hindsight--we can see that Schiff is 100% accurate in his predictions. Seriously, you have to watch at least the second example in the clip below. I can't believe what jerks these guys were, with the cameras rolling. They might as well have waved their hands in a circle next to their heads and said, "Coo coo, coo coo."
But OK, I was a little unfair to him, and since then I have made up for it (I hope) through a few official recognitions of my mistake; here is the mea culpa (with links to some of my harshest Schiff critiques if you feel like taking a trip down memory lane). But MAN check out the video below, which an anonymous commenter put in an earlier post at this blog. You've probably seen the first one several times by now, but make sure you watch the second exchange. These two guys literally laugh out loud at Schiff, when--with the benefit of hindsight--we can see that Schiff is 100% accurate in his predictions. Seriously, you have to watch at least the second example in the clip below. I can't believe what jerks these guys were, with the cameras rolling. They might as well have waved their hands in a circle next to their heads and said, "Coo coo, coo coo."
Comments:
Thanks for these. Schiff was clearly right, and I agree that those guys in the second clip were real arrogant jerks.
In the first clip Schiff does that same distracting thing of twisting in his chair.
By the way, it used to be uderstood by those doing the index-finger waving thing that they were calling someone "cuckoo" or crazy.
In the first clip Schiff does that same distracting thing of twisting in his chair.
By the way, it used to be uderstood by those doing the index-finger waving thing that they were calling someone "cuckoo" or crazy.
I am always amazed by Mr. Schiff. He just calls it as he sees it, and when the others start hooting, he just stays on message.
sorry for posting anon...here's another awesome Schiff video where he goes into detail about the housing crisis and subsequent financial crisis in front of a Mortgage Bankers Conferences(of all places) it's part 5 of 8, definitely watch the whole thing if you have time. In later parts he goes up against Barry Asmus who makes fun of him saying something to the effect of "only in the case of a nuclear bomb would this happen" Enjoy. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoSwkCog-Ro&feature=PlayList&p=02C71D0CDFF9F38B&index=4)
I very much respect Peter Schiff [1] for raising the alarm about the fundamental problems, even and especially if no one's listening. However, I should note that Schiff's recommended portfolio is doing about as well right now as the rest of the foolish investors. Remember, he recommends European and Asian stocks, gold, and ~10% cash for buying up good deals as the market tanks.
Well, if you followed that, the last part is doing well -- you can swoop in and buy cheaper. But gold is stagnating, and foreign stocks have tanked even worse. I would know -- I read his book and shifted out of US equities and into foreign about a month before the crisis. And Treasuries still have pitifully low interest rates.
We may have to wait a little longer before complete vindication, is all...
[1]Bob, can you figure out why that doesn't have underscores?
Well, if you followed that, the last part is doing well -- you can swoop in and buy cheaper. But gold is stagnating, and foreign stocks have tanked even worse. I would know -- I read his book and shifted out of US equities and into foreign about a month before the crisis. And Treasuries still have pitifully low interest rates.
We may have to wait a little longer before complete vindication, is all...
[1]Bob, can you figure out why that doesn't have underscores?
Fair enough...I too have issues with his focus on "too much consumption and not enough production" seems like a mercantilist argument. I haven't read his books so maybe he has some free market reasoning (ie the artificial credit encourages consumption). But his analysis of problem is pretty much spot on when he talks about the crisis imo...even if his remedies via stock picks to pan out.
There is a big difference between a good investor and a good economist. At the moment he is doing better at the latter than the former.
Warren Buffett is generally the opposite, from what I see.
Warren Buffett is generally the opposite, from what I see.
Bill, Schiff talks about the need for more production from a free-market perspective. He believes the loose monetary policies by the United States are what allowed the massive trade imbalances between the US and other countries, namely Japan and China. He maintains that our shift from a durable production centered economy to a more fragile, consumerist economy is a product of those loose monetary policies.
The more I think about the Federal Reserve system, the more I believe it is responsible for the vulgar consumerist mindset both liberals and conservatives rail on about. If you Keynesians and what have you continue to tell consumers spend, spend, spend during rough economic periods, then what kind of mindset does would such exclamations impart on the consumer?
The more I think about the Federal Reserve system, the more I believe it is responsible for the vulgar consumerist mindset both liberals and conservatives rail on about. If you Keynesians and what have you continue to tell consumers spend, spend, spend during rough economic periods, then what kind of mindset does would such exclamations impart on the consumer?
# posted by 
: November 14, 2008 at 4:50 PM
: November 14, 2008 at 4:50 PM
I apologize. The above should have read If the Keynesians and what have you...
# posted by : November 14, 2008 at 4:55 PM
: November 14, 2008 at 4:55 PM
wow, schiff certainly nailed the current crisis...well before anyone else i've seen or read.
those jerkoffs that laughed at him might have had the first laugh, but schiff most certainly had the last.
thanks for posting the videos.
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those jerkoffs that laughed at him might have had the first laugh, but schiff most certainly had the last.
thanks for posting the videos.
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