This just came out Tuesday night: Congressional Democrats have decided to pick their battles, and will allow the congressional moratorium on offshore drilling to expire with the fiscal year at the end of September. (The Gang of 10 and then Speaker Pelosi's bill, which passed the House last week, were all measures to reinstate a large portion of the expiring ban.)

Well this is very exciting but also nerve-wracking. In many articles I have been saying things like, "If the Democrats let the ban expire tomorrow, we would see a significant drop in oil prices."

Now in truth, I can always cover myself (if I were a weasel) by saying that the markets expect them to reinstate the ban in a few months, and so there's no real stimulus given to offshore production.

But I promise I won't take that route out. If oil prices do not respond quite clearly to this surprise announcement, then I will admit I was wrong.