tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5776375569387669394.post2479725896850089582..comments2023-10-19T10:43:38.825-04:00Comments on Free Advice: Bursting Eugene Fama's BubbleBob Murphyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04001108408649311528noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5776375569387669394.post-28963720596898236962010-02-16T18:54:39.305-05:002010-02-16T18:54:39.305-05:00Bob, you do understand that EMH says that *risk-ad...Bob, you do understand that EMH says that *risk-adjusted* expectations of future prices equal current prices, ie, that prices are martingales under the pricing measure? Hasn't this been pointed out repeatedly to you at the mises blog? (I'd do so there, but alas, I appear to have been banned there.)Beefcake the Mightynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5776375569387669394.post-37754329590504889182010-02-16T11:20:57.209-05:002010-02-16T11:20:57.209-05:00A better example than earthquakes is speciation an...A better example than earthquakes is speciation and adaptation -- I.e. Darwin. Science can't give a deterministic prediction but it can give an after the fact explanation.<br /><br />In was stunned by Fama's ignorance of recent economic events in the housing and mortgage finance industry.<br /><br />It's amazing what ignorance you can get away with if you have tenure and an "elegant" formal "theory" which generates endless publications for academics.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532630855794099767noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5776375569387669394.post-68603076345002199512010-02-16T10:43:22.326-05:002010-02-16T10:43:22.326-05:00I was reading Yale paper on commodities futures ye...I was reading Yale paper on commodities futures yesterday and thought the authors had a good take on EMH. The wrote that its impossible to beat the market based on publicly available information alone. I can accept that. That doesn't mean that entrepreneurs might not have knowledge and insight that others don't.fundamentalistnoreply@blogger.com